The hurdles in ousting Peter O'Neill as Prime Minister

Intense lobbying is going on between politicians to muster numbers in electing a Prime Minister through a motion of no confidence against incumbent Peter O’Neill.

The motion is likely to be moved when Parliament resumes next week, May 7.

At this stage, we don’t know who would be the candidate.

Peter O’Neill though has enjoyed a strong and stable Government since his ascension and controversial election as Prime Minister on August 2, 2011.

He then successfully returned as Prime Minister after two national general elections- 2012 and 2017.

Peter O'Neill (right) sitting in Parliament

His ruling People’s National Congress (PNC) party in 2017 mustered majority of the electoral wins and was invited by the Governor General to form government which he did and enjoyed stability and cohesion since.

Grand Chief Sir Michael Somare was the last longest serving Prime Minister who held the post for a record nine years (2002 to 2011).

Despite Peter O’Neill’s much stabilised reign, there were serious and constant allegations labeled against his government for mismanagement, running the economy down, corruption, breaches of law, favoritism in offering contracts- allegations mainly issued by the Opposition, pressure groups and political commentators.

But Prime Minister Peter O’Neill has never been weakened and countered the allegations through some well crafted public relations responses playing down the severity of the allegations and pointing people to increased infrastructure developments.

He was loved, admired, praised and his coalition government numbers increased to a comfortable 86.

But the recent events of resignations by his government ministers’ (James Marape –Finance and Davis Steven- Justice and Attorney General) and MP’s defecting from his PNC party though minor from his standpoint- it’s been rattling and Papua New Guineans with their rationale conclude that things are not right within Peter O’Neill’s coalition.

If we were to prematurely crunch numbers, Peter O’Neill has about 79 members, that includes West Sepik’s Governor Anthony Wouwou who did an unorthodox move courting one anti-O’Neill camp comprising members of the Opposition, made news headlines that he had defected but within less the 24 hours made news headlines again courting his party leader Peter O’Neill and dispelling media reports he left the party.

Tari Pori MP James Marape (right) shaking hands with Morobe
 Governor Ginson Saonu, 

The Opposition has 24 members and excluding the Speaker, the balance of seven dissenting MP’s would most likely vote against Peter O’Neill.

While lobbying and strategic political maneuverings and discussions may not have reached the mass media, surely there are deep discussions behind the scenes.

People everywhere are watching with keen interest through social media, radio, TV, newspapers and online news media.

As it is, there are three options likely to eventuate after all the political hype and lobby against Peter O’Neill is settled within the next possible three weeks.

I say three weeks because a notice of motion to move a vote of no confidence has to be presented to the Speaker of Parliament, a week before it is moved.

The motion will be vetted by a committee chaired by the Speaker and the motion must be signed by several MP’s who also propose the alternate Prime Minister.

So there’s a bit of work to do for any one or group to first muster the magic number of 56 and then get the nod from the Speaker and his committee.

If Peter O’Neill was to survive the vote of no confidence, though he has been confident and firm that his coalition government was intact and as vibrant as ever, he must be reminded that cracks have surfaced from within and he must be at his best than ever to counter.

He must hold strong the 79 he has as turn of events indicate shocking decisions can be made when you least expect it.

He must first ensure he is not voted out in the party caucus meeting.

James Marape has been forthright this week, he wants the PNC party leadership to be tabled-essentially he says he does not want Peter O’Neill to lead the party and be the Prime Minister.

Does James Marape imply he was one of many within the party who desires a change in party leadership?

Peter O’Neill has since responded that Marape was not welcome in the party caucus meeting.

The second option which could work to replace Peter O’Neill as Prime Minister is a major dissent from within the government coalition who votes against him. Again the magic number is 56.

The third which uses a similar modus operandi as the above in the vote of no confidence-the person can be from the coalition government or the opposition but they must convince and secure 56 votes to oust Peter O’Neill.

The first hurdle though is an alternate Prime Minister must have been chosen within the next six days.

While that looms, Papua New Guineans observe with keen interest how this would ­­­­­eventually pan out as lobbying intensifies and THE day gets closer day by day.